The 2015 investment landscape could resemble the plot of The Hunger Games, where investors face a changing and unexpected environment that requires multiple talents and smarts to emerge victorious. Expectations for 2015 are for global share market returns of 5 – 10 per cent, but there could be some volatility ahead.

At the beginning of 2015, global cash rates were close to zero and bond rates both internationally and in Australia were close to multi-decade lows. The Australian share market delivered flat returns over 2014 (a price return of just +1 per cent), and at the beginning of 2015, stood at levels which were no higher than 2006. With patchy global economic growth and with Australia in particular facing a painful adjustment phase as the resources boom winds down, there’s no shortage of challenges to tackle.

What will it take to ‘win’ in 2015?

1. Be prepared to adapt quickly to changing market conditions

“May the odds be ever in your favour” is the popular catchcry from The Hunger Games, highlighting the element of chance. This saying may provide little comfort, but a lot can be done to tilt opportunities in your favour.

However, the range of likely returns around those forecasts (the ‘standard deviation of return’) is large: plus or minus 20 per cent for shares, versus a wellbehaved plus or minus 5 per cent for high-yield debt.

2. If you choose freedom, you must accept the risk

Your risk profile is important in determining whether you are able to access wellvalued assets that may take time to pay off, or whether you need to be more prudent with your investment choices.

As we move further into 2015, we observe stretched global share valuations, a US Federal Reserve system preparing for higher official interest rates, pressure in commodity markets in some emerging economies and a continued winding down of the resources boom that has underwritten the Australian economy for so many years. Be mindful of the investment risks you take and maintain a long-term perspective of your goals and risk tolerance.

3. You may need to search further to gain returns

In 2015, the local Australian economy will have to deal with weaker commodity prices and collapsing resource capital spending – problems potentially compounded by a downturn in the housing cycle. Investors looking to gain exposure to economies that are in a more dynamic phase of the economic cycle will therefore need to consider markets in the Asia-Pacific region, within the Northern Hemisphere developed world, and in the emerging world more generally.

4. Be alert for opportunities

In an environment where nothing is as it seems, the lead character in The Hunger Games, Katniss, remains on guard to access valuable supplies. Likewise, given the unpredictable investment landscape, one of the lessons of 2014 was to stay diversified across a full range of asset classes. We expect more of the same unpredictability in 2015. In this environment, active management becomes especially important – investors must have wide-ranging sources of opportunities, an eye for making timely decisions and a nimble process.

The bottom line: believe that adversity offers an opportunity to do your best.

Even if the financial markets resemble The Hunger Games in 2015, it’s possible for investors to weather twists and turns by having a diversified investment mix and making wise choices based on their long-term goals.

Source: Russell

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US

Key considerations for fixed income investing

The Federal Reserve has continued to partially remove stimulus via further reductions in quantitative easing (QE) this year. Despite this reduction, US 10 year treasury yields have fallen from 3% in January to approximately 2.5%. We are not particularly concerned about the risk of inflation, which is usually the key driver of higher interest rates. There is too much excess capacity and structural unemployment in the global economy (especially in Europe) for us to be overly concerned of an inflation spike. However, The US Federal Reserve owns close to 35% of all US Treasuries with more than 5 years of duration remaining. There is a risk that rates could rise with the removal of Federal Reserve buying. As a result, we recommend investors allocate a significant proportion of their defensive assets to credit funds with minimal duration exposure, to reduce the risk of loss of capital if US 10 year government bond yields do indeed rise significantly.

Will stronger GDP growth lead to strong earnings growth and market gains?

Despite slow growth in the first quarter which was largely weather related, we believe US GDP growth in 2014 is likely to be in the vicinity of 2.5-3%, which is higher than the growth rates of 2013. Importantly, public sector revenues have improved due to stronger consumption and higher asset prices, which has led to higher tax receipts. The budget deficit is likely to decline to 3 to 4% of GDP, negating the need for major expenditure reductions or tax increases. The outlook for corporate capital expenditure is positive, and consumer confidence is robust due to recent gains in housing and equity prices as well as employment growth.

While the outlook for US GDP growth is reasonably positive, the outlook for corporate earnings is not particularly promising. First quarter earnings grew at close to 2%, and we are doubtful that consensus expectations for 8% earnings growth this year will be achieved. Tailwinds of reduced interest expenses, no real wages growth, productivity gains and US dollar weakness have been key drivers of US corporate margin expansion in recent years. A number of these earnings tailwinds have abated. Corporate margins may hover at their current historically high levels, but further margin expansion is unlikely to be significant. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against most major foreign currencies over the past year, which is a headwind for earnings growth (earnings from subsidiaries are worth less in US dollar terms and exports priced in local currencies are also worth less in US dollar terms).  Interest rates are likely to gradually increase in the years ahead, providing a further headwind to earnings per share growth. The consequences of this is not necessarily poor share market performance – but further price earnings multiple expansion is likely to be a prerequisite for any further equity market appreciation of considerable magnitude.

Europe

Expect slow growth and diversity in GDP growth rates

We expect Europe to exhibit slow, albeit positive GDP growth throughout 2014. Business and consumer confidence have improved, and this could lead to more robust business and consumer spending. The medium term inflation outlook in Europe is low, and is likely to fluctuate around 1% or less. Given the very high unemployment rate of close to 12% (with significant disparity between countries), and low workforce participation rates, wage inflation pressures are minimal. The output gap is also wide in Europe, with significant excess capacity. As such, with nominal GDP likely to grow at about 2%, European nations are less able to inflate their way out of their high net debt levels.

Banks remain in deleveraging mode, and credit conditions remain relatively tight. Growth rates between European nations are likely to remain varied – Germany is likely to exhibit more positive growth, with Spain and Italy continuing to lag.

The outlook for UK GDP growth is more promising – consumer spending is growing and business investment has finally started to exhibit some robustness. Inflation is also higher, equating to significantly higher nominal GDP growth than continental Europe.

Japan

Japan is likely to experience slower growth this year, mainly due to the sales tax increase in April 2014 from 5% to 8%, which is likely to dampen consumption, and also due to more constrained government expenditure post extraordinary stimulus in 2013. GDP growth is likely to be in the vicinity of only 1%.

Source: IOOF, May 2014

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Disclaimer

The team at Leenane Templeton are here to help with any questions you may have in relation to economic growth, your investment strategy and the general economic outlook as a whole. Give us a call.

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